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How Are Kalshi and Polymarket Worth Billions Without a Gambling License? | WSJ The Economics Of

The Wall Street Journal • 2026-05-30T14:30:04Z • 7:44:00 • intermediate • Business

Lead

Curious about how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are making waves in the betting world without traditional gambling licenses? Let's dive into the fascinating world of prediction markets and their billion-dollar valuations!

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Quiz

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Q1. What is the main type of contract traded on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket?

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Q2. How much is Kalshi valued at according to the video?

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Q3. Which regulatory body oversees event contracts in the US?

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Q4. What percentage of Kalshi's trading volume comes from states that have not legalized online sports betting?

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Q5. What is a significant concern regarding prediction markets mentioned in the video?

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Vocabulary

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prediction

/prɪˈdɪkʃən/

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Definition

A statement about what will happen in the future.

Example

The prediction of rain led us to carry umbrellas.

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liquidity

/lɪkˈwɪdəti/

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Definition

The availability of liquid assets to a market or company.

Example

High liquidity in the market allows for easier buying and selling of assets.

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contract

/ˈkɒntrækt/

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Definition

A written or spoken agreement, especially one concerning employment, sales, or tenancy.

Example

She signed a contract to finalize the sale of her house.

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regulatory

/ˈrɛɡjʊˌleɪtəri/

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Definition

Relating to the control or supervision of an activity or industry by rules or laws.

Example

The regulatory body oversees compliance with industry standards.

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insider

/ˈɪnˌsaɪdər/

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Definition

A person within an organization who has access to confidential information.

Example

The insider trading scandal led to several arrests.

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manipulation

/məˌnɪpjuˈleɪʃən/

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Definition

The action of controlling or influencing something in a skillful but often unfair or deceitful way.

Example

The manipulation of stock prices is illegal and unethical.

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